Why Pareto’s 80:20 principle does not apply when it comes to project finance models

It is well-known that accurate modelling is particularly important in project finance transactions. But why is this? One can think of this in terms of the likelihood and benefits/costs of getting these calculations right or wrong. Models are at their most useful when the chance of being wrong is relatively low, but the cost of being wrong is relatively high.

In most project finance transactions cash flows are relatively predictable and the likelihood of the model resembling reality is therefore pretty high; likewise where these assets are highly leveraged, the cost of a mistake can be very substantial (and could indeed wipe out much of the value of the remaining equity in the project). Where cash flows are more volatile, as in many other areas of corporate finance, it is often not practical to use a similarly detailed model to try to give the same degree of confidence in the outputs; whether due to natural variation or human error, reality simply will not match the initial projections. A detailed and accurate model is therefore a fundamental requirement to support the high levels of gearing that we are accustomed to seeing in project finance.

In terms of the ‘at-risk’ areas of your model, these depend on the nature of the assets and the details of the transaction. For instance, an LLCR calculation might be riddled with errors, but if this is not a ratio that is covered in your financing documents (as is increasingly common in renewables transactions) then the cost of getting this wrong is virtually nil. But there are some standard hot-spots for errors across sectors that modellers should always be aware of:

  • Inflation – errors here are both pretty common and often fairly expensive, as any mistake will compound over time. Small changes to base dates or the application of inflation rates will make a big difference to your cash flows at the back end of the debt profile. A further alarm bell should be set off if the model’s cost/price for the current year or period fails to match what is actually paid/received (it sounds obvious but is routinely wrong)
  • Documents – these are written by lawyers who are not necessarily renowned for their modelling ability, whilst the task of carefully reading the documents is routinely given to a different team member to the one doing the modelling. That this gives rise to errors should surprise no-one. There are often subtle points around the timing of cash flows or the calculation of cover ratios (to give two examples) that can get missed. Crucially if such a problem is unearthed at a later stage, the legal document will always take precedence over whatever was modelled, thereby making the subsequent rectification of the problem much harder.
  • Financial close funds flow – in general, models are built around approximations over time periods that are measured in months or years. This is perfectly reasonable and sensible – except at (or soon after) financial close. Large amounts of money move between parties and both the amounts and the process (something on which a model is normally silent) need to be carefully considered. A funds flow statement needs to capture all relevant cash flows and the practicalities of any transfers as it is not possible to take a hand-wavy approach of saying ‘cash flow x nets off against cash flow y’. Understandably any problems here tend to come out of the woodwork pretty quickly when an advisor or exiting lender does not get paid everything they expected to get paid.

What are the lessons here? That depends a bit on whether you are a modeller or looking for someone to do your modelling. But a few things hold either way:

  1. The 80/20 rule does not really apply – the famous rule of thumb of ‘putting in 20% of the effort to get 80% of the way there’ is inappropriate in project finance. You might be able to get much of the way to the right answer but the details of a project finance transaction really do matter and a high-level sense check of the outputs will not always get this right. Modellers should go through the credit agreements and key project documents in forensic detail – division of labour is not a helpful principle here. Take your transaction modelling seriously and it will repay whatever investment is required to make that happen whether that is time, effort, or your finest British pounds (other currencies are available).
  2. You need multiple sense checks – the best models contain multiple audit checks that between them cover off every key output. Whilst including these is best practice, it does not fully immunise the model from either logical errors (something can always slip through the net no matter how tight the mesh of audit checks) or commercial errors. It helps to have a fresh pair of eyes looking at things (at least) before an initial model goes out and each time there are substantial changes. More generally, it is a good sign if more time is spent checking a model than building it.
  3. A modeller should understand the broader transaction – a model is not just an illustration of a transaction that can be bolted on to the main body of activity. If the model (and indeed its author) is kept at arms’ length then it is very easy to lose track of the real drivers of value in a transaction. Financial decisions depend on quantitative analysis and the quality of those decisions will be very strongly correlated with the quality of information that is provided to decision makers; the transaction model informs these decisions more than any other single document or tool. You should negotiate the model rather than model the negotiations – and this means that everyone should understand the key outputs of the model.

As an advisor, Elgar Middleton has always considered the financial model to be central to our advisory services. The modeller is fully integrated into the team advising the client from day 1 and their role includes reviewing all the term-sheets, iterations of the finance documents and providing constructive feedback to the legal advisors to ensure documents and models align. Unsurprisingly this means that the modeller is not a junior member of the team and in some cases the work is undertaken by one of the partners. Even so, every model is subject to repeated peer reviews at various stages throughout each transaction, because even the smallest of slips can have the largest of consequences.

Impact of COVID-19 on borrowers in the renewable energy sector

The spread of COVID-19 continues to have far-reaching consequences with falls in oil and power prices, business shutdowns, financial market downturns, and a shift to the “new normal” of social distancing. Despite this current flux in the financial, commodity, and labour markets, renewable energy assets – particularly those with long-term, stable, contracted cash flows – remain relatively more resilient in the face of such situations.

It is nevertheless vital that sponsors and developers in this sector identify and seek to resolve potential issues that may impact their renewable energy project financing schemes. Elgar Middleton considers the following to be such issues:

Liquidity and solvency

A combination of financial market distress, lower power prices, and supply chain disruption associated with COVID-19 may impact the near-term cash flows of some renewable energy assets – particularly those with pre-existing distress or a large proportion of uncontracted revenues. In certain instances, this may impact the sponsor’s ability to meet its loan obligations.

It is imperative that borrowers review their obligations and, if they have any concerns, engage proactively with lenders to discuss measures such as: extensions to short-term credit facilities, reduction in the repayment amounts, deferred scheduled payments – and in more extreme scenarios – seek to refinance their entire project finance loans.

Ratio covenant tests and other documentary conditions

Even if current cash flows do not result in immediate concerns, COVID-19 may have an impact on financial covenant tests typically required by project finance schemes. Borrowers should consider early engagement with lenders to discuss amendments or waivers to these clauses, as necessary

Other contractual positions in existing loan agreements which are becoming particularly relevant during these times include drawdown conditions on revolving facilities and reserve accounts, material adverse effects, representations and warranties, and events of default.

Market for project finance debt

In response to the current situation, borrowers who are looking at their capital structures and ways to optimise them or most effectively inject new funds – be it through bridge financing, revolving facilities, or replacing long-term debt, need to be aware of additional considerations.

We are currently seeing lenders reviewing key areas including downside sensitivities, the risk allocation between borrowers and key counterparties, and reporting requirements relating to future outbreaks.

It remains crucial for sponsors to structure resilient financial packages that consider these factors without jeopardising returns. It is also worth highlighting that the project finance lending market has not stalled, with deals continuing to progress during these turbulent times.

COVID-19’s impact on renewable energy projects and their financing remains uncertain and will vary significantly between projects. As this situation develops, Elgar Middleton remains keen to share real-time insights with our clients. If you want to discuss these topics further, please do not hesitate to contact us.

Positive news from Australia: MLFs stabilise for FY20-21

In early April, AEMO published the final Marginal Loss Factors (MLFs) applicable for FY20-21.  Broadly speaking the MLF changes are relatively modest compared to the large decreases experienced by many renewable projects in the last two years. Several projects, particularly solar farms in central and north Queensland received modest upgrades. Others were still downgraded, though not by as much as foreshadowed in AEMO’s draft report released in March (for example the problematic West Murray region in NW Victoria / SW NSW).

These outcomes are a reflection of the challenging Australian renewables market, with AEMO citing additional network constraints and a slowdown in new developments as key reasons for the smaller changes.

What does this mean for equity and debt?

The MLF stabilisation is likely to narrow the observable valuation / expectation gap between buyers and sellers. Nevertheless investors should conduct careful due diligence, have an informed view on the MLF trajectory of their potential acquisition targets, and avoid over-extrapolation of the current outcomes.

Although we expect senior debt providers to relax the most severe downside restrictions, there is little doubt that this topic will continue to be a key focus for most credit teams. It remains crucial for sponsors to structure resilient financial packages so that future MLF changes do not cause a critical covenant breach (coverage ratios) and potentially jeopardise returns.

We are conducting additional root-cause analysis on major MLF changes in light of the recent AEMO announcements and will share more insights in due course.

Link to AEMO press release.

How carbon-neutral are EVs and hydrogen fuel cell vehicles?

This is a subject full of myths, claims and counterclaims and was the challenge we put to Elgar Middleton’s latest recruit – Malek Benlarbi-Delai – to investigate. The results are extraordinary.

To determine the carbon footprints of various types of vehicles, Malek analysed an internal combustion engine (ICE) vehicle , an electric vehicle (EV) and a hydrogen fuel cell vehicle (HFCV). Each had its construction-related carbon output calculated and then the carbon released from its ongoing use.

It was no surprise that the analysis confirmed that ICE vehicles are not the way forward for our society. What was a surprise was that an EV can result in just as much carbon emissions overall as an ICE vehicle, depending on where it was manufactured and subsequently driven. In fact, an EV which has its battery manufactured in China and is then driven in Australia will generate more carbon over its lifespan than a standard ICE vehicle.

This all comes down the energy generation mix in those countries with both China and Australia remaining highly dependent on coal for its power. And as the main source of energy of an EV is the electricity coming from the grid, an EV driven in Sydney is indirectly, almost entirely coal-powered.

The report’s conclusions however are not all bleak. The results are far more encouraging in countries where governments have taken proactive measures to switch to renewables.

These regional variations form a key conclusion and reinforce why it is fundamental that we continue to press for each and every community globally to go carbon neutral – because the electrification of transport will not help us reduce our global carbon footprint if our electricity is not produced from renewable sources.

And what about HFCVs? When the hydrogen that powers the HFCV is derived from renewable sources, the process produces no waste products but water. This solution then becomes, without a doubt, the greenest form of transport available.

If you want to know about Elgar Middleton, or indeed wish to see Malek’s full report, then please get in touch.

COVID-19 Update

The wellbeing of our staff, their families and our clients is our top priority. In light of the current situation, our teams in London and Sydney have been adopting full remote working arrangements and our ability to do so is well tested. Despite these worrying times, we are very much open for business and we stand ready to support our clients in any way that we can.

Elgar Middleton sells 2.4MW AD plant

Elgar Middleton is delighted to have sold the 2.4MW Lower Drayton anaerobic digestion facility in Staffordshire, England

Elgar Middleton BioPower Limited has sold the entire share capital in the 2.4MW Lower Drayton anaerobic digestion facility to Lower Drayton Biogas Invest Co Limited. The project is located in Staffordshire and, once constructed, will supply renewable natural gas and allow the local network to de-carbonise the gas supply to circa 3,000 homes.

Elgar Middleton Infrastructure and Energy LLP was financial adviser to the transaction.

Elgar Middleton reaches £3bn of renewable energy debt

Elgar Middleton is delighted to hit its latest milestone of raising £3bn of renewable energy debt on behalf of its clients

2019 saw Elgar Middleton raise almost £1bn of non-recourse debt across renewable technologies in the UK and Australia. This brings our total amount of renewable energy debt raised since inception to £3bn. We are hugely encouraged by this milestone which reflects both the hard work of the team worldwide and the trust placed in us by our clients.

We have been delighted to see so many of our clients returning to us throughout the past few years: we take the time to understand the goals of each financing, we identify the most competitive funders to deliver the best possible terms, and our Partners ensure a smooth transaction execution by project managing the process from start to finish.

We would like to thank our clients and fellow advisors as well as each of the members of the growing Elgar Middleton team for their support in achieving this landmark. Here’s looking forward to billion number 4!

Neoen and John Laing reach financial close on AUD 650m long term debt refinancing of Hornsdale Wind Farm

Elgar Middleton is delighted to have advised Neoen SA. and John Laing on the refinancing of Hornsdale 309MW wind farm portfolio

The three stages of the Hornsdale wind portfolio located near Jamestown, SA have successfully transitioned to steady operational stage over the past years.

The projects benefit from strong ACT PPAs, improving grid/curtailment conditions, as well as the strategical support of the MLA club: Korea Development Bank, Natixis, Mizuho Bank and Societe Generale. The long-term debt solution is designed to unlock significant value for the Sponsors in the medium and long term as well as align the legacy financing of the assets with the most recent developments and precedents in the Australian renewables project finance market. This marks the second successful cooperation between Neoen and Elgar Middleton after the award winning Bulgana Green Power Hub (IJ Global’s APAC Storage Deal of the Year 2018).

White&Case acted as Legal advisors for the sponsors, while HSF supported the Lenders. Further specific transaction support was provided by JCRA, EY, Baringa, Willis, GHD and DNV.

Malek Benlarbi-Delai joins Elgar Middleton as an Associate in London

Elgar Middleton is pleased to announce the arrival of Malek Benlarbi-Delai in its London office.

Malek joins the team as an Associate specialising in the wind and solar sectors. His focus will be on supporting the origination and execution of M&A and debt financing opportunities in Continental Europe.

After completing his Masters degree in Financial Analysis and Management from the University of Exeter, Malek worked at JLL and before then, at Ardian and the Caisse des Depots et Consignations. His experience includes conducting multiple in-depth analysis of the European infrastructure and renewable energy market and being involved in the advisory of various renewable energy projects in the UK.

Elgar Middleton advises Foresight on UK renewables refinancing

Elgar Middleton has advised Foresight Solar Fund Limited on the refinancing of a 321MW solar PV portfolio in the UK

The financing comprised a £170m senior secured facility provided by Sumitomo Mitsui Banking Corporation (“SMBC”) and Landesbank Hessen-Thüringen Girozentrale (“Helaba”), a £65m revolving credit facility provided by National Westminster Bank plc (“NatWest”), and a £10m debt service reserve facility.

The new financing benefited from reduced margins and an extended tenor, and provides additional flexibility for Foresight Solar Fund Limited to pursue new investment opportunities.

The project consists of a portfolio of 321MW of solar PV assets spread across 28 sites, and is wholly-owned by Foresight Solar Fund Limited – a fund managed by leading independent global infrastructure and private equity manager, Foresight Group.

Carlos Andrés Prudencio joins Elgar Middleton as an Associate Director in London

Elgar Middleton is pleased to announce the arrival of Carlos Andrés Prudencio in its London office.

Carlos joins the team as an Associate Director specialising in the wind and solar sectors. His focus will be on supporting the origination and execution of M&A and debt financing opportunities in the UK and Continental Europe.

Prior to Elgar Middleton, Carlos was a Vice-President in Santander’s London Project and Acquisition Finance team and before then, he worked in Société Générale’s Energy Advisory and Project Finance team, based in London. During this time, Carlos worked on advisory and lending mandates for landmark energy and infrastructure projects across Europe and the Middle East. With over 6 years of experience in the energy space Carlos has gathered considerable exposure to onshore and offshore wind, solar PV and CSP as well as conventional thermal energy and infrastructure.

Carlos holds a Master in Management from ESSEC Business School Paris and is fluent in English, French and Spanish.